This year’s relegation battle is reaching boiling point and it has brought back memories of the great relegation battles of years gone by. In all probability, West Bromwich Albion are already down. Tony Mowbray deserves to be applauded for the way they have kept on playing football this season, but do they have the players to play football at the highest level? It is hard to believe they are the same team who won the Championship quite emphatically last season.
Stoke City, who were runners-up to West Brom, are, in my opinion, virtually safe. Tony Pullis has done a terrific job there. They are not pretty to watch, and earlier in the season they relied heavily on the long throw input of Rory Delap. However, they have a great home record and have won the majority of their games at the Britannia Stadium. They have beaten Arsenal and Aston Villa at home, and also drawn home and away to Liverpool. They also only lost out to late goals when they played Manchester United and Chelsea, so, full credit to them.
Signing James Beattie in the transfer market was also an inspired choice by Pullis, and the former Southampton star has more than repaid his transfer fee. He has always been a decent goalscorer in the Premiership and during the recent England striker ‘crisis’ he could well have been called up.
I would say Stoke need one more win to be safe, and they will probably get it, most likely at home. They have passionate support there and this weekend’s game against Newcastle will be crucial. If Stoke don’t get beaten, they will create a lot of breathing space between themselves and the bottom three. Who would have predicted that at the start of the season?
Middlesbrough are an interesting team. They have an exceptionally young squad and a young manager. I’m a fan of Gareth Southgate and in his first two seasons at the Riverside his sides finished 12th and 13th respectively. Those are solid league finishes. He has also taken Boro to three successive FA Cup quarter finals, so what’s gone wrong this year? Actually, I remember the North-East club being in a similar position two seasons ago, around March time, and eventually finishing twelfth. However, with only one win in 18 league games (strangely against Liverpool) and a 4-1 beating last week at Bolton still fresh in their minds, confidence can hardly be any lower could it?
The current situation at Middlesbrough reminds me of the end of Bryan Robson’s reign. The North East club were bottom in December 2000, but he appointed Terry Venables to help him manage the team and they ended up finishing 14th. Maybe Southgate should have done something similar, but it may well be too late now. Stranger things have happened, but I can’t see them staying up. The goal that Gary O’Neil scored at the Reebok last weekend was a terrific team goal, but Afonso Alves has not been a good signing and they lack goals, despite the team creating lots of chances. I wouldn’t say it’s a formality, but they look doomed at this stage.
Then we come to Newcastle. I think that Alan Shearer is the right choice as manager. He is a ‘legend’ of the club, an intelligent guy, and, at his peak, was a player respected around the world. Of course many great players have not made successful managers, but many also have been. Johan Cruyff, Frank Rijkaard and Franz Beckenbauer were/are great managers. Kenny Daglish (although not at Newcastle) and Kevin Keegan (domestically) were successful managers too. The Geordies do have a tough run in, but the players will respect him and he is a strong personality.
I must admit, against Chelsea I expected Newcastle to play better and be more fired up. Much still depends on Michael Owen, and one thing’s for sure, Shearer will play him in every game, as long as he is fit. I for one, believe Owen still has a lot to offer and he is still the best English finisher there is. Although he may have lost a lot a yard of pace, he is still a lethal box player and he may just be the difference. It has to be said, the other dozen or so teams in the relegation picture do not have Newcastle’s firepower, so I think they will survive, just…
Portsmouth, meanwhile, have looked impressive in recent weeks and I think Paul Hart has done a decent job. I liked him as a manager at Nottingham Forest and he was also the youth team coach at Leeds in the days of Kewell, Smith and Woodgate, so he has always had potential. They also have the goals of Peter Crouch, whilst David Nugent has looked impressive recently. They have attacking flair on both flanks and generally have some really fine players both young and experienced. I can see them comfortably staying up, although if Tony Adams was still there, I wouldn’t be so sure...
Sunderland are in big trouble. Ricky Sbragia lacks experience, and despite a good start as boss, they appear to be in free fall. It will be interesting to see how they play against a struggling Manchester United team on Saturday, but Djibril Cisse’s recent off field problems won’t have helped the cause. However, they still have players who can win games on their own, such as Kenwyne Jones and Keiran Richardson, so I think they will stay up.
A lot depends on how Sunderland performs on Saturday. If they are beaten comprehensively, confidence will be very low going into the final weeks of the season. That game is crucial, to both teams, of course.
For me, Sam Allardyce is an excellent manager with vast experience in this situation, and the Ewood Park club have the goals of Benny McCarthy to keep them up.
Gary Megson, meanwhile, has done a great job at Bolton, and doesn’t get enough credit, in my opinion. They actually play some really pretty football these days, and in Matt Taylor, they have one of the best players outside the top four. They will stay up too, no doubt about it.
One team that may still be dragged down are Hull City. They have only taken six points since November, and Phil Brown does seem to be making some odd decisions lately. Hull, like West Brom, play attractive football and were a pleasure to watch earlier in the season. They drew at Liverpool and Chelsea and won at Arsenal, and were in the top six until December. Their home form, however, is horrendous and they still have to play both Manchester United and Liverpool at the KC Stadium. I think they may be the third team to go.
I am predicting a total of 38 points will be good enough for survival, but things could all change dramatically of the course of one weekend. Struggling teams can suddenly discover some form and confidence from nowhere. Oldham Athletic, for example were nine points behind Crystal Palace with three games left in 1992-93, but they won those games (including beating Liverpool), whilst Palace lost their last three. Oldham dramatically 'pipped' them on goal difference on the final day of the season.
West Brom were five points adrift at Christmas 2004, but ended up escaping relegation on the last day of the season, going from the bottom to 17th place. That was a very unexpected finale, although the points totals were very low that year.
West Ham United finished on 43 points in 2002-2003, but went down on the last day. This amount of points would have finished 12th last year, and it just goes to show that no team is too good to go down. It is a famous cliché, but West Ham had Joe Cole, Carrick, Di Canio, Kanute, Defoe, David James and Trevor Sinclair in that team.
The Upton Park club also had a dramatic, but, controversial relegation battle two seasons ago. They were eight points from safety in March, but, inspired by Carlos Tevez they scrambled out of the relegation zone on the last day, winning at Old Trafford to guarantee their survival.
I will stick my neck out with six weeks of the season still to go. I predict that West Brom and Middlesbrough will go down, and so will Hull City. I think the ‘Shearer effect’ will do the trick at Newcastle, and the individual players of Sunderland and Portsmouth will keep them up.
Relegation battles are thrilling and I can honestly see the last day being a monumental battle between three or four teams. The appointment of Alan Shearer has only added to the excitement. It is still possible for any three of nine teams to be relegated.
Both the top and bottom of the Premiership are heading for blanket finishes. Long live the Premiership..!!
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