LOOKING THROUGH A CRYSTAL BALL

Next week is crunch time for many countries hoping to be at next year’s World Cup finals.

With nine months to go before the tournament kicks off in South Africa, who are the real contenders for the crown?

Will it be the same old names? Or will a dark horse sneak through the pack and surprise everyone?

Some major names are unlikely to be in Africa. Portugal are struggling to qualify, while Sweden also face early elimination.

It is therefore, a distinct possibility that we may not get to see either Ronaldo or Zlatan Ibrahimovic at next year’s showpiece event.


Spain appear to be most people’s favourites at this point, and rightly so.

The Liberians have the best pool of players and have won every one of their qualifying matches. This sequence included a victory in Turkey, a notoriously tough place to go and win.

They have a dazzling array of talent including Iker Casillas, the goalkeeper and a defence including two Champions league winners and Sergio Ramos of Real Madrid.

The midfielders are small but wonderful at keeping possession. Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso, Fabregas, Silva and Senna are all world class players.

Coach Vincent Del Bosque can afford to leave two of those players out. He really has an embarrassment of riches in that area.

The Spaniards also have decent options out wide. Liverpool’s Albert Riera has a terrific left foot and a fine turn of pace. He has really improved over the last year. His presence offers them another dimension.

David Villa and Fernando Torres are a duo of strikers unrivalled in world football. But, what would happen if one of them got injured?

Are the substitute strikers even approaching the same level? I would say no.

I believe here are question marks over the defence as well. Carles Puyol is not the player he was three years ago and does get caught for pace on many occasions. Gerard Pique, meanwhile, still lacks experience on the international stage.

The midfield is supreme when in possession, but what about when the team faces a physical outfit, like for example, the USA? They can be rattled, as we saw in the summer.

The Spaniards are the bookies favourites, but are beatable in my view.. They haven’t got that invincible feel that say, France had, at the turn of the century.


England have been superb in qualifying and have an excellent coach in Fabio Capello. He seems to be getting the best out of Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney and has moulded them into a tough outfit.

The 1966 winners concede more goals than they did under Sven Goran Eriksson, but they also score more.

Question marks still remain over the goalkeeper and the right back position. Although Glen Johnson offers so much going forward, it does enable Capello to play Lampard, Gerrard and Barry in a narrow formation if needs be.

Much has been said about Jermaine Defoe’s form. But he will not be a starter.
Emile Heskey or Carlton Cole will partner Rooney.

These players provide the Manchester United forward with the space he requires because they are prepared to do his dirty work. Defoe is not selfless enough for that role and he can only really be an impact substitute.

England should certainly get to the last four. It will be winter in South Africa, so the heat cannot be an excuse like it has been in previous World Cups.

I just worry what Capello’s frame of mind will be like if England meet Italy. That would be a fascinating scenario if it happened.


Italy and Germany can never be written off when it comes to major championships, and will qualify.

Both teams lack the superstars of years gone by, but both have experienced coaches and terrific team work.

Danielle De Rossi of AS Roma is a quality player for Italy, and has the ability to be a real star of the tournament. However the Italians are an ageing side and I believe this will be their downfall.

Michael Ballack remains Germany’s key man. It may well be his swan song, so he will want to go out on a real high.

One of those two giants will probably get to the semi finals, but I would be very surprised if both teams made it that far.


Of the South Americans, Brazil will always be a threat. But do they have the players this time around?

The five times winners currently lack any truly world class strikers.

In recent World Cups they have had Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Adriano to call on. But now they have no one even close to that standard.

Robinho and Kaka are the players on whom their hopes rest. But they are both inconsistent. Can they perform at their best for seven games in 30 days?

Gilberto Silva, Ze Roberto and Lucio are all veterans now, but Danny Alves is a fantastic option at wing back if Dunga decides to use him. I believe the Barcelona star could also be a star of the tournament.

Brazil will always be dangerous, mainly due to the fact that are ‘Brazil’.

I personally don’t think Argentina are contenders for the crown.

I don’t believe Diego Maradona is an astute enough manager, and like England, Argentina always go into the World Cup as one of the favourites and so often fail to deliver.

Since the two time winners lost the 1990 final, they have not gone beyond the quarter finals. In fact they even went out in the group stages in 2002.

Lionel Messi is obviously their main star, but I don’t think he can win the tournament on his own.

The Argentines have hardly set the world alight in the qualifiers, and their record playing at high altitude, as they may do in South Africa, is appalling.

I do not see the Netherlands as contenders either. They are terrific going forward, but have a particularly weak defence, which will get exposed at the highest level.

Dirk Kuyt is a decent player, but if he is Holland’s first choice central striker, I think this demonstrates their lack of strength in depth.


Russia have been a sleeping giant way too long, but they have continued where they left off in Euro 2008, when I thought they were the next best team after Spain.

Guus Hiddink’s side have a terrific balance of technique and pace, and seem to have a good team spirit. They are also frightening quick on the counter attack.

Hiddink has to take a lot of credit for this, and with players such as Andrei Arshavin, Yuri Zhirkov and Roman Pavlyuchenko (chronically under-used at Tottenham last season), they are a good bet to get to the last eight at least.

However, a word of advice for the gambler’s among you. Please note Hiddink’s losing record in semi finals. I predict the Russians will not go beyond that stage.

My dark horses for 2010 are Serbia.

They have an excellent defence marshaled by Nemanja Vidic, and have quality in midfield, led by the outstanding Inter playmaker Dejan Stankovic.

As with all former Yugoslav teams, they are supremely gifted technically. Many of the team have also grown up together and the spirit is excellent.

If the Serbs can win at home to France next week, and I think they will, they have all but assured qualification. Watch out for them next year!


Of the African teams, the Ivory Coast have the experience of the last World Cup to draw on. I think if the draw favours them, they are a good bet for the last eight.

The West Africans are a strong and technically gifted team and they also possess world class players in Yaya Toure and Didier Drogba.

Whether the Ivory Coast, like all the African teams, have the discipline to go all the way is still debatable. But no one will look forward to playing such a powerful outfit.


As things stand, I would make Spain slight favourites, closely followed by Brazil, England and Russia.

Injuries to key players can make all the difference so it’s difficult to make solid predictions at this stage.

But it should be an exciting end to the qualifying stages and I predict a few twists and turns to come..

The countdown continues. 285 days to go.